Brain VS Heart: UFC 195 PICKS

Welcome to The Brain vs. The Heart. Everyone has that internal battle with themselves about which fighter you think will win vs. which fighter you actually want to win. The Brain vs The Heart takes you on a journey inside the mind (and heart) of IAMMA to tackle the battle head-on. With the records reset for the first event of 2016 it’s anyone’s game. Who will win? Let’s find out!

Tony Sims (-135) vs. Abel Trujillo (+115)

The Brain: Trujillo is a powerful striker with a relatively high output. He also has a tendency to trade shots, which likely isn’t a smart gameplan against his opponent. Sims is a boxer, and while his output is average he has good movement and is hard to hit. Both fighters are durable, but I think Sims will be able to move in and out and bait Trujillo into leaving some openings. I think Sims lands several hard shots late in the fight and gets the stoppage. Sims by TKO

The Heart: I have nothing against Sims, but I’ve followed Trujillo since he wrestled for William Penn (which is in Iowa). Like I’ve said before, I tend to root for most fighters that have an association with the state that I’ve called home my entire life. Trujillo by TKO

Diego Brandao (+175) vs. Brian Ortega (-210)

The Brain: Brian Ortega will look to stay undefeated against another solid veteran in Diego Brandao. Ortega is pretty well rounded, but mainly relies on his grappling ability. He also likes to switch stances to keep his opponent off guard. Brandao has decent output with solid power, but can also be rather hittable. He also does a good job of finding space for takedowns. While Brandao will be game, I think Ortega comes out ahead in this contest. Ortega by Decision

The Heart: Ortega has really impressed me so far, but more than anything I’m basically choosing against Brandao. I stopped rooting for Brandao after he threatened to stab Poirier before weigh-ins of their fight. Then to add to that incident, in early 2015 he threatened some reporters. I just don’t enjoy rooting for someone that shows that kind of character (or lack thereof). Ortega by Decision

Lorenz Larkin (+220) vs. Albert Tumenov (-260)

The Brain: Larkin is quick and athletic. He has been reluctant to throw in the past, but looked much better in his last fight. Tumenov is cautious but throws extremely powerful shots and does a good job of not absorbing too many power shots. This fight will likely play out on the feet as neither fighter tends to go for takedowns and both possess good takedown defense. In which case, I favor Tumenov in this fight. While he has the power to finish Larkin, I think this one goes to the scorecards. Tumenov by Decision

The Heart: I like Larkin, but he has continually failed to live up to what I think are reasonable expectations. He seems to have the talent, but just hasn’t shown it in several fights. On the other hand, Tumenov has continued to show just how much power he has. He’s still only 24 and I think he can have a long and successful career in the UFC. Tumenov by Decision

Andrei Arlovski (+190) vs. Stipe Miocic (-230)

The Brain: Arlovski looks to continue his unlikely run against the always tough Miocic. Arlovski will no doubt be looking to put away Miocic with some hard shots. Miocic is no bum in the striking department either. He tends to use a little less power and instead focuses on volume. He also likes to work in a few takedowns as well, but he will likely have a hard time getting Arlovski to the ground, and if he does, he will find it very difficult to keep Arlovski there. While Arlovski has looked pretty solid since his UFC return, he didn’t look the greatest against Mir. If that same Arlovski shows up against Miocic, I think Miocic picks him apart. I expect Arlovski to look better than that in this fight, but I also expect Miocic to bring it. I think volume will be the key factor in this fight and I think Miocic outworks Arlovski to take a narrow decision. Miocic by Decision

The Heart: Miocic is a skilled fighter and genuinely seems like a good person. However, I’ve been an Arlovski fan for as long as I can remember. His resurgence has completely unexpected and I’d love to see his improbable run continue all the way to a title shot. Arlovski by TKO

Robbie Lawler (-110) vs. Carlos Condit (-110)

The Brain: Much like Dos Santos/Overeem, this is another fight that I’ve wanted to see for several years, but unlike that fight, this isn’t happening several years too late. In fact, even though both fighters are older than 30, I’d say they are more dangerous than ever. Condit has an endless gas tank and is a master of body shots. Lawler has serious power, but has really refined his approach since returning to the UFC. Both of these fighters have amazing chins and this will likely be a standing battle. I could easily see either fighter walking away with the belt Saturday. This is such a close fight and this will likely be a war. Lawler’s last fight against MacDonald could have easily taken a toll on him, but I think he’s been too good lately to pick against. Lawler by Decision

The Heart: I’m on the fence about who I would like to see win this fight. On the one side, I’d love to see Condit win the actual welterweight title, but on the other hand, I’d like to see Lawler defend it. Either way, I think this will be an outstanding fight between two guys that truly deserve to be there. While I really like Condit, Lawler is my favorite welterweight of all time; I’m going to side with him like I always have. Lawler by Decision

Any questions or comments? Hit me up on Twitter @IAMMAEverlast or comment below.

About the Author:

IAMMA. MMA superfan looking to be the voice of the fans. Tune in to read my Brain vs Heart picks & MMA event recaps!