The Dwyer Score- UFC 240: Max Holloway vs. Frankie Edgar

This Saturday, the UFC returns to Pay-Per-View action hoping that third time’s the charm when it comes to scheduling this headlining bout.

In the main event, Max Holloway (20-4 MMA, 16-4 UFC) looks to defend his UFC featherweight championship against MMA veteran and former lightweight champion Frankie Edgar (23-6-1 MMA, 17-6-1 UFC)

Let’s take a look at the last three results of the two men in Saturday night’s main event:

Holloway followed a third-round TKO over former featherweight champion José Aldo with a fourth-round stoppage of the previously undefeated Brian Ortega. Holloway then stepped up to 155 lbs. for a shot at the interim lightweight title against Dustin Poirier, coming up short in a unanimous decision defeat in one of the best fights of the year so far.

Holloway’s (still active) streak of 12 consecutive wins is an all-time UFC record at featherweight.

Edgar scored an emphatic second-round TKO over Yaír Rodriguez in May 2017 before being stopped for the first time in his career via first-round KO against Brian Ortega. Edgar returned to action just 49 days later, recording a unanimous decision win over Cub Swanson.

Edgar has spent more time inside the UFC Octagon (6:47:33) than anyone else in history, and also ranks second amongst active UFC fighters in the list of total significant strikes landed, whilst Holloway tops that list.

Here’s a look at how these two fighters fared when competing against common opponents shared throughout their careers. On the left of the graphic, you’ll see how Holloway fared against any shared opponents and on the right, you’ll see Edgar’s results against the same men.

The two men share five common opponents; José Aldo, Cub Swanson, Brian Ortega, Jeremy Stephens, and Charles Oliveira.

Holloway is a perfect 6-0 against their shared opponents, with only Stephens making it to the judges’ scorecards.

Edgar suffered losses against Aldo (twice) and Ortega, defeating Stephens, Oliveira, and Swanson (twice).

The Dwyer Score

Each event, I calculate a ‘Dwyer Score’ for the card. It essentially gives a numeric value to the momentum of fighters competing at any one event. I do this by assigning a figure to each fighter’s current streak; a fighter on a five-fight winning streak contributes +5 to an event’s score, whilst a fighter on a two-fight losing streak contributes -2 to the score. Only UFC results are considered and a fighter coming off a no-contest, a draw, or a bout with another promotion has a streak of 0. When you tally up the scores for every fighter on a card, you get a total for the event- the ‘Dwyer Score.’ This score does not claim to predict or measure the quality or excitement of any one card, but it does give you an idea of the general momentum of fighters heading into a specific event. The graphic to the above-right displays some of the highest-scoring events of all time, to help give some context to this score.

UFC 240: Max Holloway vs. Frankie Edgar posts a low score of -1.

This score ranks joint-36th out of 41 events in the last year, and 13th out of 13 Pay-Per-View events in the same period.

Here’s a look at how this score compares to other events’ scores over the past year:

As you can see, this score falls well short of the +22.4 average for Pay-Per-Views in the last twelve months, as well as the +12.7 average for all events in the same time frame.

Let’s take a look at exactly how this score breaks down:

The highest individual contributors to the score are Geoff Neal and Alexandre Pantoja (both +3), just ahead of Hakeem Dawodu (+2).

The lowest scorers are Olivier Aubin-Mercier and Alexis Davis (both -2), whilst three fighters will be making their promotional debuts on this card.

Enjoy the fights!

Nick Dwyer
About the Author:

Nick Dwyer. Nick is a 27-year-old MMA writer who has been part of #TeamEverlast for 2 years now, contributing weekly 'Dwyer Score' columns as well as statistical analyses and fighter interviews. Follow Nick on Twitter at @NickDwyerMMA.