The Dwyer Score- UFC Fight Night: Germaine de Randamie vs. Aspen Ladd

This Saturday, the UFC returns to Sacramento, California, with a headlining fight that could determine the next contender for Amanda Nunes’ bantamweight title.

Former UFC featherweight champion Germaine de Randamie (8-3 MMA, 5-1 UFC) takes on Aspen Ladd (8-0 MMA, 3-0 UFC) in a battle between the first and fourth-ranked UFC bantamweights.

Both the inaugural UFC women’s featherweight champion (de Randamie) and the inaugural UFC women’s flyweight champion (Nicco Montaño) will be competing at this event.

Let’s take a look at the last three results of the two women in Saturday night’s main event:

De Randamie followed a first-round TKO victory over Anna Elmose with a five-round unanimous decision win over former UFC bantamweight champion Holly Holm. Germaine became UFC featherweight champion with the win over Holm, although it was a close decision that saw the Dutchwoman land controversial late strikes after the end of both rounds two and three.

After being stripped of the title for refusing to defend against Cris Cyborg, de Randamie returned (after an 18 months absence) with a unanimous decision win over former title contender Raquel Pennington.

Ladd is a perfect 3-0 in the UFC, scoring back-to-back TKO victories over Lina Länsberg and Tonya Evinger before recording a unanimous decision win over Sijara Eubanks earlier this year. Ladd, who turned 24 years old in March, has picked up two fight-night bonuses in her three UFC fights.

De Randamie and Ladd share no common opponents throughout their professional MMA careers.

The Dwyer Score

Each event, I calculate a ‘Dwyer Score’ for the card. It essentially gives a numeric value to the momentum of fighters competing at any one event. I do this by assigning a figure to each fighter’s current streak; a fighter on a five-fight winning streak contributes +5 to an event’s score, whilst a fighter on a two-fight losing streak contributes -2 to the score. Only UFC results are considered and a fighter coming off a no-contest, a draw, or a bout with another promotion has a streak of 0. When you tally up the scores for every fighter on a card, you get a total for the event- the ‘Dwyer Score.’ This score does not claim to predict or measure the quality or excitement of any one card, but it does give you an idea of the general momentum of fighters heading into a specific event. The graphic to the above-right displays some of the highest-scoring events of all time, to help give some context to this score.

UFC Fight Night: Germaine de Randamie vs. Aspen Ladd posts a strong score of +18.

This score ranks joint-12th out of all 41 events in the last year and joint-4th out of all 24 events in the same time frame.

Here’s a look at how this score compares to other events’ scores over the past year:

As you can see, this score far exceeds the +7.2 average for Fight Night events in the last twelve months, as well as the +12.4 average for all events in the same period.

Let’s take a look at exactly how this score breaks down:

The highest individual contributor to the score is Germaine de Randamie (+4), ahead of Aspen Ladd, Ricky Simón and Ryan Hall (all +3).

The lowest individual scorer is Darren Elkins (-2), whilst three fighters will be making their promotional debuts at this event.

Enjoy the fights!

Nick Dwyer
About the Author:

Nick Dwyer. Nick is a 27-year-old MMA writer who has been part of #TeamEverlast for 2 years now, contributing weekly 'Dwyer Score' columns as well as statistical analyses and fighter interviews. Follow Nick on Twitter at @NickDwyerMMA.