The Dwyer Score- UFC Fight Night: Jack Hermansson vs. Jared Cannonier

This Saturday, the UFC makes its first trip to Denmark, at Copenhagen’s Royal Arena.

In the main event, Jack Hermansson (20-4 MMA, 7-2 UFC) takes on Jared Cannonier (12-4 MMA, 5-4 UFC) in a battle between the fifth and ninth-ranked UFC middleweights, respectively.

Let’s take a look at the last three results of the two men in Saturday night’s main event:

Hermansson notched back-to-back first-round submissions over Gerald Meerschaert and David Branch before scoring the biggest victory of his career in a unanimous decision victory against Ronaldo ‘Jacaré’ Souza.

‘The Joker’ had just 28 days between his victories over Branch and Jacaré earlier this year.

Cannonier rebounded from a first-round TKO defeat against Dominick Reyes with consecutive stoppage victories over David Branch and former UFC middleweight champion Anderson Silva.

2-0 as a middleweight, Cannonier has recorded UFC victories at heavyweight, light-heavyweight, and middleweight.

Here’s a look at how these two fighters fared when competing against common opponents shared throughout their careers. On the left of the graphic, you’ll see how Hermansson fared against any shared opponents and on the right, you’ll see Cannonier’s results against the same men.

The two men share just one common opponent; David Branch.

Both men defeated Branch in the last twelve months, with Hermansson winning via first-round submission and Cannonier notching a second-round TKO.

The Dwyer Score

Each event, I calculate a ‘Dwyer Score’ for the card. It essentially gives a numeric value to the momentum of fighters competing at any one event. I do this by assigning a figure to each fighter’s current streak; a fighter on a five-fight winning streak contributes +5 to an event’s score, whilst a fighter on a two-fight losing streak contributes -2 to the score. Only UFC results are considered and a fighter coming off a no-contest, a draw, or a bout with another promotion has a streak of 0. When you tally up the scores for every fighter on a card, you get a total for the event- the ‘Dwyer Score.’ This score does not claim to predict or measure the quality or excitement of any one card, but it does give you an idea of the general momentum of fighters heading into a specific event. The graphic to the above-right displays some of the highest-scoring events of all time, to help give some context to this score.

UFC Fight Night 160: Jack Hermansson vs. Jared Cannonier checks in with a score of +2.

This score ranks 30th out of 43 UFC events in the last year and 13th out of 24 Fight Night events in the same period.

Here’s a look at how this score compares to other events’ scores over the past year:

As you can see, this score falls some way short of the +11.7 average for all events in the last year, as well as the +7 average for Fight Night events in the same time frame.

Let’s take a look at exactly how this score breaks down:

The highest individual contributor to the score is Jack Hermansson (+4), ahead of Gilbert Burns and Macy Chiasson (both +3).

The lowest scorer is John Phillips (-3), with Ovince Saint Preux and Alex Oliveira (both -2) close behind. Four fighters will be making their promotional debuts at this event.

Enjoy the fights!

Nick Dwyer
About the Author:

Nick Dwyer. Nick is a 28-year-old MMA writer who has been part of #TeamEverlast for 3 years now, contributing weekly 'Dwyer Score' columns as well as statistical analyses and fighter interviews. Follow Nick on Twitter at @NickDwyerMMA.