The Dwyer Score- UFC Fight Night: Jéssica Andrade vs. Weili Zhang

This Saturday, for the first time in promotional history, a Chinese fighter will have the chance to become a UFC world champion.

Reigning strawweight champion Jéssica Andrade (20-6 MMA, 11-4 UFC) will look to stop that from happening against contender Weili Zhang (19-1 MMA, 3-0 UFC).

Let’s take a look at the last three results of the two women in Saturday night’s main event:

Andrade followed a unanimous decision victory over Tecia Torres with back-to-back KOs against Karolina Kowalkiewicz and Rose Namajunas, becoming strawweight champion after a vicious slam KO in the latter.

No female has more wins inside the Octagon than Andrade, although reigning featherweight and bantamweight champion Amanda Nunes also has 11.

Zhang sandwiched a first-round submission over former WSOF strawweight champion Jessica Aguilar in between unanimous decision victories over Danielle Taylor and Tecia Torres.

Zhang is undefeated in nineteen bouts since losing her professional debut in 2013.

Here’s a look at how these two fighters fared when competing against common opponents shared throughout their careers. On the left of the graphic, you’ll see how Andrade fared against any shared opponents and on the right, you’ll see Zhang’s results against the same women.

The two women share just one common opponent; Tecia Torres.

Both women notched clear unanimous decision victories over Torres, Andrade’s win coming last February whilst Zhang’s win came this March.

The Dwyer Score

Each event, I calculate a ‘Dwyer Score’ for the card. It essentially gives a numeric value to the momentum of fighters competing at any one event. I do this by assigning a figure to each fighter’s current streak; a fighter on a five-fight winning streak contributes +5 to an event’s score, whilst a fighter on a two-fight losing streak contributes -2 to the score. Only UFC results are considered and a fighter coming off a no-contest, a draw, or a bout with another promotion has a streak of 0. When you tally up the scores for every fighter on a card, you get a total for the event- the ‘Dwyer Score.’ This score does not claim to predict or measure the quality or excitement of any one card, but it does give you an idea of the general momentum of fighters heading into a specific event. The graphic to the above-right displays some of the highest-scoring events of all time, to help give some context to this score.

UFC Fight Night 157: Jéssica Andrade vs. Weili Zhang posts a strong score of +17.

This score ranks joint-15th out of all 42 UFC events in the past year, and joint-7th out of 23 Fight Night events in the same period.

Here’s a look at how this score compares to other events’ scores over the past year:

As you can see, this score far exceeds the +11.7 average for all events in the last twelve months, as well as the +8 average for Fight Night events in the same time frame.

Let’s take a look at exactly how this score breaks down:

The highest individual contributor to the score is Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos (+7), ahead of Jéssica Andrade (+4) and Weili Zhang (+3).

The lowest scorers are Mark De La Rosa, Kenan Song, Derrick Krantz, Anthony Hernandez, Su Mudaerji and Andre Soukhamthath (all -1), whilst nine fighters are making their promotional debuts at this event.

Enjoy the fights!

Nick Dwyer
About the Author:

Nick Dwyer. Nick is a 27-year-old MMA writer who has been part of #TeamEverlast for 2 years now, contributing weekly 'Dwyer Score' columns as well as statistical analyses and fighter interviews. Follow Nick on Twitter at @NickDwyerMMA.