MMA

The Dwyer Score- UFC Fight Night: Korean Zombie vs. Yair Rodríguez

This Saturday, the UFC celebrates its 25th anniversary by returning the location of its first-ever event; Denver, Colorado.

In the main event, an injury to Frankie Edgar saw Yair Rodríguez (10-2 MMA, 6-1 UFC) step in to face ‘The Korean Zombie’ Chan Sung Jung (14-4 MMA, 4-1 UFC).

Let’s take a look at the recent results of the two men in Saturday night’s main event:

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Jung recorded a fourth-round submission win over a 23-year-old Dustin Poirier (ranked third in the UFC’s lightweight division today) in a 2012 Fight of the Year nominee. Jung then faced José Aldo for the UFC featherweight championship, coming up short in a fourth-round TKO loss in August 2013 after dislocating his shoulder mid-fight.

Having spent two years away from MMA action whilst completing military service in South Korea, Jung has only fought twice since May 2012. Injuries have also contributed to Jung’s inactivity, though he was successful in a first-round KO victory over Dennis Bermudez in February of last year.

‘The Korean Zombie’ has been awarded 5 fight night bonuses in 5 UFC fights.

Rodríguez followed a five-round split-decision win over Alex Caceres with an emphatic second-round TKO win over former UFC lightweight and welterweight champion B.J. Penn.

Hype for Rodriguez was at an all-time high after the Penn performance, but a fight last May against another former UFC lightweight champion, Frankie Edgar, proved too soon for Rodríguez. Just 24-years-old at the time of the fight, this time Rodríguez was on the receiving end of a second-round TKO stoppage.

Jung and Rodríguez share no common opponents throughout their professional MMA careers.

The Dwyer Score

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Each event, I calculate a ‘Dwyer Score’ for the card. It essentially gives a numeric value to the momentum of fighters competing at any one event. I do this by assigning a figure to each fighter’s current streak; a fighter on a five-fight winning streak contributes +5 to an event’s score, whilst a fighter on a two-fight losing streak contributes -2 to the score. Only UFC results are considered and a fighter coming off a no-contest, a draw, or a bout with another promotion has a streak of 0. When you tally up the scores for every fighter on a card, you get a total for the event- the ‘Dwyer Score.’ This score does not claim to predict or measure the quality or excitement of any one card, but it does give you an idea of the general momentum of fighters heading into a specific event. The graphic to the above-right displays some of the lowest-scoring events of all time, to help give some context to this score.

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UFC Fight Night 139: Chan Sung Jung vs. Yair Rodríguez clocks in with a score of -1.

It’s the third consecutive week without a positive score. The all-time record is four consecutive events without a positive score, set late last year.

This score ranks joint-28th of 32 events in 2018 and 14th out of 17 Fight Nights this year.

Here’s a look at how this score compares to other events’ scores over the past year:

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As you can see, this score falls short of the +2.9 average for Fight Nights in the last year, as well as the +9.6 average for all events in the same period.

Let’s take a look at exactly how this score breaks down:

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The highest individual contributor to the score is Germaine de Randamie (+3), just ahead of Davi Ramos (+2). The lowest scorer is Ashley Yoder (-3), whilst five fighters are making their UFC debuts at this event.

Enjoy the fights!

Nick Dwyer
About the Author:

Nick Dwyer. Nick is a 27-year-old MMA writer who has been part of #TeamEverlast for 2 years now, contributing weekly 'Dwyer Score' columns as well as statistical analyses and fighter interviews. Follow Nick on Twitter at @NickDwyerMMA.

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