MMA

The Dwyer Score- UFC Fight Night: Lyoto Machida vs. Eryk Anders

For the second week in a row, an older Brazilian veteran takes on an American from the South.

The locals will be hoping for another Brazilian victory as former UFC light-heavyweight champion Lyoto Machida (22-8 MMA, 14-8 UFC) faces Eryk Anders (10-0 MMA, 2-0 UFC) in Belém, Brazil.

Let’s take a look at the recent results of the two men in Saturday night’s main event:

machidaandersrecentresultss

Machida suffered back-to-back stoppage defeats to Luke Rockhold and Yoel Romero just 70 days apart back in 2015, with many critics saying the fights were too close together. Machida then spent a lengthy spell on the sidelines after receiving a controversial 18-month USADA suspension for 7-keto-DHEA.

On his return, last October, Machida lost via first-round KO to Derek Brunson. He is once again scheduled for a relatively quick turnaround, with Saturday’s fight coming just 98 days after the Brunson loss.

Anders made his UFC debut stepping in on short notice against MMA veteran Rafael Natal, less than a month after winning a five-round decision against Brendan Allen for the LFA middleweight title.

He scored a memorable first-round KO win against Natal before returning in December with a unanimous decision win against Markus Perez. Anders went 4-0 in four fights in 2017, just as he did in 2016.

Machida and Anders share no common opponents throughout their professional MMA careers.

The Dwyer Score

ufc220toptentable

Each event, I calculate a ‘Dwyer Score’ for the card. It essentially gives a numeric value to the momentum of fighters competing at any one event. I do this by assigning a figure to each fighter’s current streak; a fighter on a five-fight winning streak contributes +5 to an event’s score, whilst a fighter on a two-fight losing streak contributes -2 to the score. A fighter coming off a No Contest, a draw, or a bout with another promotion has a streak of 0, and only UFC results are considered. When you tally up the scores for every fighter on a card, you get a total for the event- the ‘Dwyer Score.’ This score does not claim to predict or measure the quality or excitement of any one card, but it does give you an idea of the general momentum of fighters heading into a specific event. The graphic to the above-right displays some of the highest-scoring events of all time, to help give some context to this score.

ufcfn125dscore

UFC Fight Night 125: Lyoto Machida vs. Eryk Anders comes in with a solid score of +10.

This score ranks 17th of all 40 events in the last year and 5th of 23 Fight Night events in the same time frame.

Here’s a look at how this score compares to other events’ scores over the past year:

ufcfn125graph

As you can see, this score far exceeds the average of +3.3 for Fight Night events in the last twelve months, but falls just short of the +11 average for all events.

Let’s take a look at exactly how this score breaks down:

ufcfn125table

The highest individual contributor to the score is Michel Prazeres (+5), just ahead of Pedro Munhoz (+4), Thiago Santos and Anthony Smith (both +3).

The lowest scorer is Lyoto Machida (-3), with fellow Brazilian Iuri Alcântara (-2) close behind. Three fighters are making their promotional debuts this weekend, including Maia Stevenson- the wife of MMA veteran and The Ultimate Fighter 2 winner Joe Stevenson.

Enjoy the fights!

Nick Dwyer
About the Author:

Nick Dwyer. I’m a 26-year-old MMA writer living in Manchester, UK with a passion for covering the sport I’ve loved and followed for several years now. Follow me on Twitter at @NickDwyerMMA

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