The Dwyer Score- UFC Fight Night: Neil Magny vs. Santiago Ponzinibbio

On Saturday, Argentina becomes the 22nd country to host a UFC event as the promotion makes its first trip to Buenos Aires.

In the main event, Neil Magny (21-6 MMA, 14-5 UFC) takes on the Argentine Santiago Ponzinibbio (26-3 MMA, 8-2 UFC).

Let’s take a look at the recent results of the two men in Saturday’s main event:

Magny rebounded from a first-round submission loss to former UFC lightweight champion Rafael dos Anjos with a unanimous decision win over Carlos Condit last December. He returned to action this May, defeating late-notice replacement Craig White via first-round KO.

The UFC record for the most fights in a calendar year (5) is shared by seven fighters. Magny, however, is the only fighter to have done that twice, competing 5 times in the UFC in both 2014 and 2015.

Ponzinibbio competed three times in 2017, sandwiching a controversial first-round KO of Gunnar Nelson in between three-round unanimous decision wins over Nordine Taleb and Mike Perry.

Only Kamaru Usman (8) betters Ponzinibbio’s six-fight winning streak in the UFC’s welterweight division at the moment, though Colby Covington, Leon Edwards, and Elizeu Zaleski are also on six-fight winning streaks.

Here’s a look at how these two fighters fared when competing against common opponents shared throughout their careers. On the left of the graphic, you’ll see how Magny fared against any shared opponents and on the right, you’ll see Ponzinibbio’s results against the same men

The two fighters share just one common opponent; Lorenz Larkin.

Both men suffered a similar fate against the now Bellator welterweight. Larkin scored a second-round TKO win over Ponzinibbio in June 2015 before notching a first-round TKO win against Magny a little over a year later.

The Dwyer Score

Each event, I calculate a ‘Dwyer Score’ for the card. It essentially gives a numeric value to the momentum of fighters competing at any one event. I do this by assigning a figure to each fighter’s current streak; a fighter on a five-fight winning streak contributes +5 to an event’s score, whilst a fighter on a two-fight losing streak contributes -2 to the score. Only UFC results are considered and a fighter coming off a no-contest, a draw, or a bout with another promotion has a streak of 0. When you tally up the scores for every fighter on a card, you get a total for the event- the ‘Dwyer Score.’ This score does not claim to predict or measure the quality or excitement of any one card, but it does give you an idea of the general momentum of fighters heading into a specific event. The graphic to the above-right displays some of the highest-scoring Fight Night events of all time, to help give some context to this score.

UFC Fight Night 140: Neil Magny vs. Santiago Ponzinibbio posts a strong score of +21.

This score ranks 4th of 33 events in 2018 and 2nd out of 22 non-PPV events this year.

Here’s a look at how this score compares to other events’ scores over the past year:

As you can see, this score far exceeds the +3.2 average for Fight Nights in the last 12 months and even beats the +20.8 average for Pay-Per-View events in the same period.

Let’s take a look at exactly how this score breaks down:

The highest individual contributor to the score is Michel Prazeres (+7), ahead of Santiago Ponzinibbio (+6) and Bartosz Fabinski (+3).

The lowest scorers are Ricardo Lamas and Austin Arnett (both -2), whilst five fighters are making their promotional debuts on this card.

Enjoy the fights!

Nick Dwyer
About the Author:

Nick Dwyer. Nick is a 27-year-old MMA writer who has been part of #TeamEverlast for 2 years now, contributing weekly 'Dwyer Score' columns as well as statistical analyses and fighter interviews. Follow Nick on Twitter at @NickDwyerMMA.