The Dwyer Score- UFC Fight Night: Rafael dos Anjos vs. Kevin Lee

This Saturday, the UFC makes its maiden visit to Rochester, New York.

In the main event, former UFC lightweight champion Rafael dos Anjos (28-11 MMA, 17-9 UFC) takes on Kevin Lee (17-4 MMA, 10-4 UFC) in a welterweight bout.

Let’s take a look at the last three results of the two men in Saturday night’s main event:

Dos Anjos scored a unanimous decision win over former UFC welterweight champion Robbie Lawler in December 2017 before meeting Colby Covington in a fight for the interim UFC welterweight championship last June. Covington adopted a wrestling-heavy approach en route to a five-round unanimous decision victory.

A few months later, dos Anjos suffered another defeat, against now UFC welterweight champion Kamaru Usman. As Covington had done before, Usman utilized his superior wrestling to secure a five-round unanimous decision win.

Like dos Anjos, Lee was unsuccessful in an interim UFC title fight, suffering a third-round submission loss against Tony Ferguson in October 2017. Lee then returned to the win column in an impressive way last April with a fifth-round TKO against Edson Barboza, albeit in a contest that Lee missed weight for.

Lee then faced Al Iaquinta in a rematch of a 2014 bout that Iaquinta had won via three-round unanimous decision against a 21-year-old Lee. Despite the loss in their first meeting, Lee was made a heavy favorite with the bookmakers for the rematch. History repeated itself as Lee lost to Iaquinta, again via unanimous decision, this time in a five-round affair.

Here’s a look at how these two fighters fared when competing against common opponents shared throughout their careers. On the left of the graphic, you’ll see how dos Anjos fared against any shared opponents and on the right, you’ll see Lee’s results against the same men.

The two men share one common opponent; Tony Ferguson.

Dos Anjos suffered a five-round unanimous decision defeat against Ferguson back in November 2016, whilst Lee lost to Ferguson via third-round submission in October 2017.

The Dwyer Score

Each event, I calculate a ‘Dwyer Score’ for the card. It essentially gives a numeric value to the momentum of fighters competing at any one event. I do this by assigning a figure to each fighter’s current streak; a fighter on a five-fight winning streak contributes +5 to an event’s score, whilst a fighter on a two-fight losing streak contributes -2 to the score. Only UFC results are considered and a fighter coming off a no-contest, a draw, or a bout with another promotion has a streak of 0. When you tally up the scores for every fighter on a card, you get a total for the event- the ‘Dwyer Score.’ This score does not claim to predict or measure the quality or excitement of any one card, but it does give you an idea of the general momentum of fighters heading into a specific event. The graphic to the above-right displays some of the highest-scoring Fight Night events of all time, to help give some context to this score.

UFC Fight Night 152: Rafael dos Anjos vs. Kevin Lee posts a strong score of +19.

This score ranks joint-9th out of all 41 events in the last year and 3rd out of 24 Fight Night events in the same time frame.

Here’s a look at how this score compares to other events’ scores over the past year:

As you can see, this score far exceeds both the +7.2 average for Fight Night events, as well as the +11.4 average for all events, in the last twelve months. This score is also not far off the +19.2 average for Pay-Per-View events in the same period.

Let’s take a look at exactly how this score breaks down:

The highest individual contributor to the score is Antônio Carlos Júnior (+5), with Vicente Luque and Charles Oliveira (both +4) and Davi Ramos (+3) close behind.

The lowest scorer is Ed Herman (-3), followed by Rafael dos Anjos, Patrick Cummins and Julian Erosa (all -2). Five fighters will be making their promotional debuts on this card.

Enjoy the fights!

Nick Dwyer
About the Author:

Nick Dwyer. Nick is a 27-year-old MMA writer who has been part of #TeamEverlast for 2 years now, contributing weekly 'Dwyer Score' columns as well as statistical analyses and fighter interviews. Follow Nick on Twitter at @NickDwyerMMA.