MMA

The Dwyer Score- UFC Fight Night: Raphael Assunção vs. Marlon Moraes II

This Saturday, Raphael Assunção (27-5 MMA, 11-2 UFC) takes on former WSOF bantamweight champion Marlon Moraes (21-5-1 MMA, 3-1 UFC) in a rematch of their controversial June 2017 bout.

In their first fight, Assunção got the victory in a three-round split decision, although it was a result that 16 out of 17 polled media members disagreed with.

Let’s take a look at the last three results of the two men in Saturday night’s main event:

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Assunção followed the aforementioned victory over Moraes with a third-round KO over Matthew Lopez- a finish which earned Assunção plaudits for holding back his hammerfist on an already unconscious Lopez. Assunção followed this performance with a unanimous decision victory against Rob Font last July.

Assunção holds the UFC record for the most unanimous decision victories in the bantamweight division.

Moraes rebounded from his loss to Assunção with a win over John Dodson, this time finding himself on the winning end of a split-decision. Moraes returned to action just 29 days later, defeating Aljamain Sterling via brutal first-round KO in a Knockout of the Year contender.

Moraes’ next fight lasted just 33 seconds, a first-round KO over Jimmie Rivera in Moraes’ first UFC main event.

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Here’s a look at how these two fighters fared when competing against common opponents shared throughout their careers. On the left of the graphic, you’ll see how Assunção fared against any shared opponents and on the right, you’ll see Moraes’ results against the same men.

The two men share just one common opponent; Aljamain Sterling.

In December 2017, Moraes defeated Sterling in a little over a minute with an emphatic knee that caused Sterling to be stretchered out of the cage. Assunção’s victory over Sterling came in a three-round split-decision in January of the same year.

The Dwyer Score

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Each event, I calculate a ‘Dwyer Score’ for the card. It essentially gives a numeric value to the momentum of fighters competing at any one event. I do this by assigning a figure to each fighter’s current streak; a fighter on a five-fight winning streak contributes +5 to an event’s score, whilst a fighter on a two-fight losing streak contributes -2 to the score. Only UFC results are considered and a fighter coming off a no-contest, a draw, or a bout with another promotion has a streak of 0. When you tally up the scores for every fighter on a card, you get a total for the event- the ‘Dwyer Score.’ This score does not claim to predict or measure the quality or excitement of any one card, but it does give you an idea of the general momentum of fighters heading into a specific event. The graphic to the above-right displays some of the highest-scoring events of all time, to help give some context to this score.

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UFC Fight Night 144: Raphael Assunção vs. Marlon Moraes II checks in with a solid score of +13.

This score ranks joint-17th out of all 38 events in the last twelve months, and joint-5th out of 22 Fight Night events in the same period.

Here’s a look at how this score compares to other events’ scores over the past year:

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As you can see, this score far exceeds the +5.9 average for Fight Night events in the last year, as well as the +10.9 average for all events in the same time frame.

Let’s take a look at exactly how this score breaks down:

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The highest individual contributor to the score is David Teymur (+5), ahead of Raphael Assunção (+4), Marlon Moraes, Charles Oliveira and Ricardo Ramos (+3).

The lowest scorer is Demian Maia (-3), with fellow countrymen Thiago Alves and Júnior Albini (both -2) close behind. Seven fighters are making their promotional debuts at this event.

Enjoy the fights!

Nick Dwyer
About the Author:

Nick Dwyer. Nick is a 27-year-old MMA writer who has been part of #TeamEverlast for 2 years now, contributing weekly 'Dwyer Score' columns as well as statistical analyses and fighter interviews. Follow Nick on Twitter at @NickDwyerMMA.

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