The Dwyer Score- UFC Fight Night: Renato Moicano vs. Korean Zombie

After a brief hiatus, the UFC returns to action this weekend with its maiden visit to Greenville, South Carolina.

In the main event, Renato Moicano (13-2-1 MMA, 5-2 UFC) takes on Chan Sung Jung (14-5 MMA, 4-2 UFC) in a battle between two top-ranked featherweights.

Let’s take a look at the last three results of the two men in Saturday night’s main event:

Moicano went 2-0 in 2018, following a unanimous decision win over Calvin Kattar with a first-round submission against Cub Swanson. The Brazilian last competed this February, suffering a second-round TKO defeat against José Aldo.

Jung has fought just three times since August 2013, when his shot at Aldo’s title ended in a fourth-round TKO defeat. After completing two years’ military service in his homeland of South Korea, Jung returned with a first-round KO victory against Dennis Bermudez.

Korean Zombie’s last fight culminated in what will likely be the most spectacular ending to a fight the UFC will ever see, with Jung succumbing to the first overhead elbow KO in promotional history at 4:59 of the fifth round, just one second away from a decision victory.

Here’s a look at how these two fighters fared when competing against common opponents shared throughout their careers. On the left of the graphic, you’ll see how Moicano fared against any shared opponents and on the right, you’ll see Jung’s results against the same men.

The two men share just one common opponent; José Aldo.

Both men suffered TKO defeats against the former WEC and UFC featherweight champion, with Moicano’s loss coming in the second round whilst Jung’s came in the fourth.

The Dwyer Score

Each event, I calculate a ‘Dwyer Score’ for the card. It essentially gives a numeric value to the momentum of fighters competing at any one event. I do this by assigning a figure to each fighter’s current streak; a fighter on a five-fight winning streak contributes +5 to an event’s score, whilst a fighter on a two-fight losing streak contributes -2 to the score. Only UFC results are considered and a fighter coming off a no-contest, a draw, or a bout with another promotion has a streak of 0. When you tally up the scores for every fighter on a card, you get a total for the event- the ‘Dwyer Score.’ This score does not claim to predict or measure the quality or excitement of any one card, but it does give you an idea of the general momentum of fighters heading into a specific event. The graphic to the above-right displays some of the highest-scoring events of all time, to help give some context to this score.

UFC Fight Night 154: Renato Moicano vs. Korean Zombie posts a solid score of +11.

This score ranks joint-22nd out of all 41 events in the last year, or joint-10th out of 25 Fight Night events in the same period.

Here’s a look at how this score compares to other events’ scores over the past year:

As you can see, this score exceeds the +7.1 average for Fight Night events over the last twelve months but falls just short of the +12.1 average for all events in the same time frame.

Let’s take a look at exactly how this score breaks down:

The highest individual contributors to the score are Dan Ige and Montana De La Rosa (both +3), just ahead of Andrea Lee, Kevin Holland, Alessio Di Chirico and Kevin Aguilar (all +2).

The lowest individual scorer is Syuri Kondo (-2), whilst Deron Winn is the lone fighter making their promotional debut on this card.

Enjoy the fights!

Nick Dwyer
About the Author:

Nick Dwyer. Nick is a 27-year-old MMA writer who has been part of #TeamEverlast for 2 years now, contributing weekly 'Dwyer Score' columns as well as statistical analyses and fighter interviews. Follow Nick on Twitter at @NickDwyerMMA.