MMA

The Dwyer Score- UFC Fight Night: Ronaldo ‘Jacaré’ Souza vs. Jack Hermansson

This Saturday, the UFC returns to Florida for an event headlined by a fight that could determine the next contender for the middleweight championship.

In the main event, former Strikeforce middleweight champion Ronaldo ‘Jacaré’ Souza (26-6 MMA, 9-3 UFC) takes on former Cage Warriors middleweight champion Jack Hermansson (19-4 MMA, 6-2 UFC).

Hermansson stepped in to replace Souza’s originally scheduled opponent, Yoel Romero, just a matter of weeks ago after the Cuban pulled out citing pneumonia.

Let’s take a look at the last three results of the two men in Saturday night’s main event:

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Jacaré followed a first-round KO over Derek Brunson with a split-decision loss to Kelvin Gastelum- a verdict which 13 out of 23 polled media members disagreed with. The Brazilian returned to action in November with a third-round KO win over former UFC middleweight champion Chris Weidman.

Souza has picked up a fight night bonus in each of his last three fights (and five bonuses in his last six fights).

Hermansson scored a third-round TKO win over Thales Leites last May before notching back-to-back first-round submissions (each by way of guillotine choke) against Gerald Meerschaert and David Branch.

Just 28 days will have passed between Hermansson’s victory over Branch (March 30th) and his fight on Saturday.

Souza and Hermansson share no common opponents throughout their professional MMA careers.

The Dwyer Score

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Each event, I calculate a ‘Dwyer Score’ for the card. It essentially gives a numeric value to the momentum of fighters competing at any one event. I do this by assigning a figure to each fighter’s current streak; a fighter on a five-fight winning streak contributes +5 to an event’s score, whilst a fighter on a two-fight losing streak contributes -2 to the score. Only UFC results are considered and a fighter coming off a no-contest, a draw, or a bout with another promotion has a streak of 0. When you tally up the scores for every fighter on a card, you get a total for the event- the ‘Dwyer Score.’ This score does not claim to predict or measure the quality or excitement of any one card, but it does give you an idea of the general momentum of fighters heading into a specific event. The graphic to the above-right displays some of the highest-scoring events of all time, to help give some context to this score.

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UFC Fight Night 150: Ronaldo ‘Jacaré’ Souza vs. Jack Hermansson checks in with a score of +4.

This score ranks joint-30th out of 40 events in the last year and joint-16th out of 24 Fight Nights in the same time frame.

Here’s a look at how this score compares to other events’ scores over the past year:

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As you can see, this score falls some way short of the +8.2 average for Fight Nights in the last twelve months, as well as the +12.6 average for all events in the same period.

Let’s take a look at exactly how this score breaks down:

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The highest individual contributors to the score are Jack Hermansson and Cory Sandhagen (both +3), just ahead of Ion Cuțelaba and John Lineker (both +2).

The lowest scorers are Ben Saunders, Carla Esparza, Angela Hill and Jodie Esquibel (all -2), whilst four fighters will be making their promotional debuts at this event.

Enjoy the fights!

Nick Dwyer
About the Author:

Nick Dwyer. Nick is a 27-year-old MMA writer who has been part of #TeamEverlast for 2 years now, contributing weekly 'Dwyer Score' columns as well as statistical analyses and fighter interviews. Follow Nick on Twitter at @NickDwyerMMA.

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