The Dwyer Score- UFC Fight Night: Valentina Shevchenko vs. Liz Carmouche II

This Saturday, the UFC will host an event in Uruguay for the first time ever, in just their third trip to South America outwith Brazil.

In the main event, UFC flyweight champion Valentina Shevchenko (17-3 MMA, 6-2 UFC) will defend her title against Liz Carmouche (13-6 MMA, 5-4 UFC) in a rematch of their September 2010 bout.

Carmouche won their first bout via TKO after a cut prompted a doctor’s stoppage. It is one of two TKO victories Carmouche holds over currently reigning UFC champions (Shevchenko and Jéssica Andrade).

Let’s take a look at the last three results of the two women in Saturday night’s main event:

Shevchenko scored a second-round submission over Priscila Cachoeira last February before claiming the UFC flyweight title in a unanimous decision victory against Joanna Jędrzejczyk. She made the first defense of her title in June with a shocking head kick knockout of Jessica Eye.

Carmouche rebounded from a split-decision defeat to Alexis Davis with back-to-back unanimous decision victories against Jennifer Maia and Lucie Pudilová. Before Saturday, Carmouche had fought just once per calendar year for five years.

Here’s a look at how these two fighters fared when competing against common opponents shared throughout their careers. On the left of the graphic, you’ll see how Shevchenko fared against any shared opponents and on the right, you’ll see Carmouche’s results against the same women.

The two women share two common opponents; Sarah Kaufman and Jan Finney.

Shevchenko notched a unanimous decision win over Finney and a split-decision win against Kaufman in consecutive fights, whilst Carmouche scored a TKO win against Finney (just 50 days after Carmouche’s first fight with Shevchenko) and suffered a unanimous decision defeat against Kaufman.

The Dwyer Score

Each event, I calculate a ‘Dwyer Score’ for the card. It essentially gives a numeric value to the momentum of fighters competing at any one event. I do this by assigning a figure to each fighter’s current streak; a fighter on a five-fight winning streak contributes +5 to an event’s score, whilst a fighter on a two-fight losing streak contributes -2 to the score. Only UFC results are considered and a fighter coming off a no-contest, a draw, or a bout with another promotion has a streak of 0. When you tally up the scores for every fighter on a card, you get a total for the event- the ‘Dwyer Score.’ This score does not claim to predict or measure the quality or excitement of any one card, but it does give you an idea of the general momentum of fighters heading into a specific event. The graphic to the above-right displays some of the highest-scoring events of all time, to help give some context to this score.

UFC Fight Night 156: Valentina Shevchenko vs. Liz Carmouche checks in with a score of 0.

This score ranks joint-33rd out of all 41 events in the past year and joint-18th out of 23 Fight Night events in the same period.

Here’s a look at how this score compares to other events’ scores over the past year:

As you can see, this score falls well short of the +11.6 average for all events in the last twelve months, as well as the +8.2 average strictly for Fight Night events in the same time frame.

Let’s take a look at exactly how this score breaks down:

The highest individual contributor to the score is Vicente Luque (+5), ahead of Valentina Shevchenko (+3), Liz Carmouche, Gilbert Burns and Alexey Kunchenko (all +2).

The lowest scorers are Volkan Oezdemir, Veronica Macedo and Tecia Torres (all -3), whilst five fighters will be making their UFC debuts at this event.

Enjoy the fights!

Nick Dwyer
About the Author:

Nick Dwyer. Nick is a 28-year-old MMA writer who has been part of #TeamEverlast for 3 years now, contributing weekly 'Dwyer Score' columns as well as statistical analyses and fighter interviews. Follow Nick on Twitter at @NickDwyerMMA.