MMA

The Dwyer Score- UFC on FOX: Ronaldo ‘Jacaré’ Souza vs. Derek Brunson II

This Saturday, Ronaldo ‘Jacaré’ Souza (24-5 MMA, 7-2 UFC) takes on Derek Brunson (18-5 MMA, 9-3 UFC) in a rematch of a 2012 bout that Souza won via KO in just 41 seconds.

Let’s take a look at the recent results of the two men in Saturday night’s main event:

jacarebrunsonrecentresults

Souza followed back-to-back first-round finishes over Vitor Belfort and Tim Boetsch with a second-round TKO loss against now UFC middleweight champion Robert Whittaker.

‘Jacaré’ has never lost two consecutive bouts in his 30-fight professional MMA career.

Brunson followed a controversial decision defeat to Anderson Silva (which 20 of 24 polled media members scored for Brunson) with two first-round KO wins against Dan Kelly and Lyoto Machida.

Brunson, who finds himself in a UFC main event for the third time in his last 5 fights, has seen his last 6 wins all come via TKO/KO stoppage in the very first round.

jacarebrunsoncommonopponents

Here’s a look at how these two fighters fared when competing against common opponents shared throughout their careers. On the left of the graphic, you’ll see how Souza fared against any shared opponents and on the right, you’ll see Brunson’s results against the same men.

The two men share three common opponents throughout their careers; Robert Whittaker, Ed Herman and Yoel Romero. Both men scored first-round finishes over Herman and suffered TKO losses via head kick and punches against Whittaker. Against Romero, Souza dropped a controversial split-decision loss that just 2 of 17 polled media members agreed with, whilst Brunson lost to Romero via third-round TKO after winning the opening two rounds.

The Dwyer Score

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Each event, I calculate a ‘Dwyer Score’ for the card. It essentially gives a numeric value to the momentum of fighters competing at any one event. I do this by assigning a figure to each fighter’s current streak; a fighter on a five-fight winning streak contributes +5 to an event’s score, whilst a fighter on a two-fight losing streak contributes -2 to the score. A fighter coming off a No Contest, a draw, or a bout with another promotion has a streak of 0, and only UFC results are considered. When you tally up the scores for every fighter on a card, you get a total for the event- the ‘Dwyer Score.’ This score does not claim to predict or measure the quality or excitement of any one card, but it does give you an idea of the general momentum of fighters heading into a specific event. The graphic to the above-right displays some of the highest-scoring events of all time, to help give some context to this score.ufconfox27dscore

UFC on FOX 27: Ronaldo Souza vs. Derek Brunson II checks in with a Dwyer Score of +5.

This score ranks joint-26th amongst all 40 events in the last year and 5th out of 5 UFC on FOX events in that same time frame.

Here’s a look at how this score compares to other events’ scores over the past year:

ufconfox27graph

As you can see, this score falls some way short of the +11.2 average for all events in the last twelve months (as well as the +16.5 average for UFC on FOX events in the same period), though it does beat the +3.3 average for Fight Night events.

Let’s take a look at exactly how this score breaks down:

ufconfox27table

The highest individual contributors to this score are Gregor Gillespie, Vinc Pichel and Joaquim Silva (all +3), just ahead of Derek Brunson (+2).

The lowest scorer on the card is Dennis Bermudez (-2), whilst two fighters are making their UFC debuts this weekend.

Enjoy the fights!

Nick Dwyer
About the Author:

Nick Dwyer. Nick is a 27-year-old MMA writer who has been part of #TeamEverlast for 2 years now, contributing weekly 'Dwyer Score' columns as well as statistical analyses and fighter interviews. Follow Nick on Twitter at @NickDwyerMMA.

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